Project issue matrix

Fourteen issue types reviewed across the report’s 30 projects. Explore documented problems, constructive partnerships, and remaining gaps.

Hurontario light rail construction north of Highway 401, October 2023. Infrastructure context.

The 30 projects were chosen for what they can teach. The report groups 14 issue types into 10 patterns. These frequencies describe the selected projects, rather than all Canadian megaprojects.

The matrix records 179 documented problems and four constructive partnerships, excluded from problem totals. Thirty cells remain unresolved. No qualifying evidence does not prove that a problem never occurred.

●Documented problem
◆Constructive partnership
?Unresolved evidence
n/aOutside boundary
·No qualifying evidence established

CODE PRESENCE ≠ SINGLE-CAUSE ATTRIBUTION

Scroll the matrix horizontally to see every project; select an issue type to read its definition.

Code / Project

01Muskrat Falls 02Site C 03Trans Mountain Expansion 04Coastal GasLink 05Keeyask Generating Station 06Darlington Refurbishment 07Ottawa Confederation Line 08Eglinton Crosstown LRT 09Finch West LRT 10Réseau express métropolitain 11Valley Line West LRT 12Samuel De Champlain Bridge 13Gordie Howe International Bridge 14CHUM Superhospital 15Mary River Phase 2 16Canada Line 17Romaine Hydroelectric Complex 18Voisey's Bay 19Mackenzie Gas 20Energy East 21Northern Gateway 22Vancouver 2010 Winter Games 23Pan Am 2015 Games 24Toronto-York Spadina Subway 25Sidewalk Toronto 26Lower Mattagami River Project 27Montréal 1976 Olympics 28Stikine-Iskut 29La Grande 30Wreck Cove

Ten patterns, fourteen issue types

Each count covers projects with at least one issue type in the pattern. The Indigenous rights pattern includes 13 documented problems and four constructive partnerships.

Optimistic baselines and unexpected ground conditions17/30
Political pressure and weak governance21/30
Indigenous rights and consultation17/30
Regulatory delay, reversal and enforcement18/30
Contractor productivity and unreliable commitments13/30
Late scope and design change16/30
Owner-contractor disputes15/30
Quality defects and rework11/30
External shocks23/30
Systems integration and commissioning4/30

Ten recommendations to test

Chapter 8 proposes practices for different project stages. Their effectiveness needs to be tested on Canadian projects. This study does not establish that these recommendations will prevent the documented problems.

Procurement means choosing how the project will be delivered and selecting suppliers. Commissioning includes testing before operation. Contingency is money set aside in the budget for risks that are expected but not yet specific.

Summary of Chapter 8 and Table 10
Stage	Proposed practice	Lead
Before sanction	Set the baseline with an outside view and publish a range	Sponsoring government and owner board
Before sanction	Require independent gateway review before sanction	Treasury board or equivalent
Before sanction	Make no public cost commitment before a business case is complete and published	Governments and ministers
Before sanction	Treat consent as a design input	Owner, rights-holders and regulators
Procurement	Keep a capable owner in charge of integration	Owner
Procurement	Match the delivery model to the uncertainty	Owner and procurement agency
Procurement	Write remedies and incentives that act early	Owner and procurement agency
Delivery and commissioning	Set clear authority over changes and over the release of contingency	Owner
Delivery and commissioning	Fix acceptance criteria and bring the operator in early	Owner and operator
After completion	Publish a post-completion review	Owner and sponsoring government

01 · Front end13/30

Optimistic baseline

A source documents that the cost or schedule approved at sanction understated what similar work required, omitted known risks, or rested on assumptions later found untested.

Documented problems: 13

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Keeyask Generating Station Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Réseau express métropolitain CHUM Superhospital Canada Line Vancouver 2010 Winter Games Pan Am 2015 Games Toronto-York Spadina Subway Montréal 1976 Olympics

02 · Contract and delivery13/30

Contractor productivity and unreliable commitments

A source documents contractor productivity well below the tender or plan, or commitments on dates and sequences that proved unachievable.

Documented problems: 13

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Coastal GasLink Keeyask Generating Station Darlington Refurbishment Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Valley Line West LRT CHUM Superhospital Pan Am 2015 Games Toronto-York Spadina Subway Montréal 1976 Olympics

03 · Front end14/30

Ground conditions

A source documents foundation, soil or buried-infrastructure conditions that differed from the baseline assumptions and affected cost, schedule or design.

Documented problems: 14

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Keeyask Generating Station Darlington Refurbishment Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Réseau express métropolitain Valley Line West LRT Canada Line Romaine Hydroelectric Complex Toronto-York Spadina Subway Lower Mattagami River Project Montréal 1976 Olympics

04 · Integration and operation11/30

Quality defects and rework

A source documents rework, defects or failed inspections on structures, track, vehicles or systems.

Documented problems: 11

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Réseau express métropolitain CHUM Superhospital Pan Am 2015 Games Lower Mattagami River Project Montréal 1976 Olympics La Grande

05 · Any stage14/30

Pandemic

A source attributes additional cost, productivity loss, supply-chain disruption or schedule loss to COVID-19.

Documented problems: 14

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Coastal GasLink Keeyask Generating Station Darlington Refurbishment Eglinton Crosstown LRT Finch West LRT Réseau express métropolitain Gordie Howe International Bridge CHUM Superhospital Mary River Phase 2 Romaine Hydroelectric Complex Sidewalk Toronto

06 · Front end13/30

Indigenous rights and consultation

A source documents consultation, accommodation, litigation or partnership with Indigenous nations shaped the project’s scope, schedule, approval or structure. Constructive partnerships are recorded separately and excluded from problem totals.

Documented problems: 13 · Partnerships excluded from totals: 4

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Coastal GasLink Keeyask Generating Station Gordie Howe International Bridge ◆Mary River Phase 2 Romaine Hydroelectric Complex Voisey's Bay Mackenzie Gas Energy East Northern Gateway Vancouver 2010 Winter Games ◆Pan Am 2015 Games ◆Lower Mattagami River Project ◆Stikine-Iskut La Grande

07 · Front end21/30

Political pressure and weak governance

An inquiry, audit, review or peer-reviewed study documents political pressure on decisions or weak, divided or uninformed oversight, with a documented effect on the project.

Documented problems: 21

08 · Contract and delivery15/30

Owner-contractor disputes

A source documents a major claim, settlement, arbitration or lawsuit between owner and contractor during delivery.

Documented problems: 15

Muskrat Falls Site C Coastal GasLink Keeyask Generating Station Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Finch West LRT Samuel De Champlain Bridge Gordie Howe International Bridge CHUM Superhospital Romaine Hydroelectric Complex Vancouver 2010 Winter Games Pan Am 2015 Games Toronto-York Spadina Subway Montréal 1976 Olympics

09 · Any stage11/30

Labour shortages and strikes

A source documents a skilled-labour shortage or industrial action that delayed work.

Documented problems: 11

Trans Mountain Expansion Coastal GasLink Réseau express métropolitain Valley Line West LRT Samuel De Champlain Bridge Gordie Howe International Bridge CHUM Superhospital Toronto-York Spadina Subway Montréal 1976 Olympics La Grande Wreck Cove

10 · Any stage8/30

Weather and natural hazards

A source documents floods, wildfires, drought, storms or extreme winter weather that disrupted construction or commissioning; ordinary seasonal conditions or future risks alone do not qualify.

Documented problems: 8

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Coastal GasLink Keeyask Generating Station Vancouver 2010 Winter Games Pan Am 2015 Games Toronto-York Spadina Subway

11 · Integration and operation4/30

Systems integration and commissioning

A source documents signalling, control, software or integration defects that delayed commissioning or caused outages.

Documented problems: 4

Muskrat Falls Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Réseau express métropolitain

12 · Any stage8/30

Supply-chain delays

A source documents late delivery of materials, vehicles, cables or specialized equipment.

Documented problems: 8

Darlington Refurbishment Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Finch West LRT Réseau express métropolitain Samuel De Champlain Bridge Gordie Howe International Bridge Wreck Cove

13 · Front end18/30

Regulatory and permitting

A source documents environmental, regulatory or permit delay, non-compliance, reversal or refusal.

Documented problems: 18

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Coastal GasLink Eglinton Crosstown LRT Gordie Howe International Bridge CHUM Superhospital Mary River Phase 2 Canada Line Romaine Hydroelectric Complex Voisey's Bay Mackenzie Gas Energy East Northern Gateway Toronto-York Spadina Subway Sidewalk Toronto La Grande Wreck Cove

14 · Contract and delivery16/30

Late scope and design change

A source documents owner-, regulator- or site-driven changes to scope or design after contract award.

Documented problems: 16

Muskrat Falls Site C Trans Mountain Expansion Coastal GasLink Ottawa Confederation Line Eglinton Crosstown LRT Réseau express métropolitain Samuel De Champlain Bridge CHUM Superhospital Canada Line Romaine Hydroelectric Complex Vancouver 2010 Winter Games Toronto-York Spadina Subway Sidewalk Toronto Lower Mattagami River Project Montréal 1976 Olympics